The global population reached six billion on 12 October 1999, and is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, when approximately 90% of the world's population will live, or survive, in the three continents of the South: Asia, Africa and Latin America where today malnutrition results in 24 000 deaths per day. Thus, in the next 50 years, the population will increase by 50%, or three billion, and food production will need to be doubled on the same area of arable land (1.5 billion hectares), by 2050. The magnitude of the challenge of feeding tomorrow's world is difficult to conceive and the enormity of the task is probably best captured by the statement that: ‘In the next fifty years mankind will consume twice as much food as mankind has consumed since the beginning of agriculture, 10 000 years ago’ (James, 2002a, 2002b).
Crops are the major source of food globally. There is a widely held view in the international scientific and development community that conventional crop improvement alone will not allow us to meet the global food demands of 2050. What is being advocated is a global strategy that integrates both conventional crop improvement and biotechnology, including transgenic crops, which are often referred to as genetically modified (GM) crops; adoption of such a strategy would allow society to harness and optimise the contribution of biotechnology and GM crops to global food security. There is cautious optimism that such a strategy would contribute significantly to the alleviation of poverty and malnutrition which afflict 1.3 billion people and 815 million people, respectively, today, and that the global food demands of 2050 and beyond can be met.
China was the first country to commercialise transgenic crops in the early 1990s. The first approval for commercial sale of a genetically modified product for food use in an industrialised country was in the United States in 1994, but significant commercialisation did not actually begin until 1996. The unprecedented rapid adoption of transgenic crops during the initial seven-year period, 1996–2002 (Figure 63.1), when GM crops were first adopted, reflects the significant multiple benefits realised by large and small farmers in the industrial and developing countries that have grown transgenic crops commercially. Between 1996 and 2002, a total of 19 countries, 10 industrial and 9 developing, contributed to a more than 35-fold increase in the global area of transgenic crops from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 58.7 million hectares in 2002 (James, 2002a). The accumulated area of transgenic crops planted globally in the seven-year period, 1996–2002, totals more than 235 million hectares, equivalent to more than 575 million acres, an area equivalent to 25% of the land area of China or the United States, and 10 times greater than the land area of the UK.
In 2002, the global area of transgenic crops continued to grow for the sixth consecutive year at a sustained rate of growth of more than 10% between 2001 and 2002. The estimated global area of transgenic or GM crops for 2002 was 58.7 million hectares or 145 million acres, grown by approximately 6.0 million farmers in 16 countries, up from 13 countries in 2001. The increase in area between 2001 and 2002 was 12%, equivalent to 6.1 million hectares or 15 million acres, and 2002 was the first year when more developing countries (9) grew GM crops than industrial countries (7), Table 63.1. More than one quarter (27%) of the global transgenic crop area of 58.7 million hectares in 2002, equivalent to 16.0 million hectares, was grown in developing countries where growth continued to be strong. Whereas the absolute growth in GM crop area between 2001 and 2002 was higher in industrial countries (3.6 million hectares) compared with developing countries (2.5 million hectares), the percentage growth was more than twice as high in the developing countries of the south (19%) than in the industrial countries of the north (9%).
In 2002, four principal countries grew 99% of the global transgenic crop area (Table 63.1). The United States grew 39.0 million hectares (66% of the global total), followed by Argentina with 13.5 million hectares (23%), Canada 3.5 million hectares (6%) and China 2.1 million hectares (4%). Of the four leading GM crop countries, China had the highest year-on-year growth with a 40% increase in its Bt cotton area from 1.5 million hectares in 2001 to 2.1 million hectares in 2002, equivalent to 51% of the total cotton area of 4.1 million hectares; this is the first time for the Bt cotton area in China to exceed more than half of the national cotton area. Despite the economic crisis in Argentina, its GM crop area grew at 14% from 11.8 million hectares in 2001 to 13.5 million hectares in 2002. A growth rate of 9% was achieved in both the United States (equivalent to 3.3 million hectares) and Canada (0.3 million hectares). GM crop hectarage increased in South Africa by over 20% to 0.3 million hectares. Three developing countries, India, Colombia and Honduras grew transgenic crops for the first time in 2002. Notably, India, the largest cotton growing country in the world, with 8.7 million hectares equivalent to 25% of the world cotton hectarage, planted 45 000 hectares of commercial Bt cotton for the first time in 2002. Colombia also planted an introductory pre-commercial area of up to 2000 hectares of Bt cotton for the first time in 2002. Honduras became the first country in Central America to grow an introductory pre-commercial area of approximately 350 hectares of Bt corn in 2002. Thus, the number of countries that grew GM crops increased from 13 in 2001 to 16 in 2002—these include nine developing countries, five industrial countries and two Eastern European countries.
Globally, in 2002, the principal GM crops were: GM soybean occupying 36.5 million hectares (62% of global area), up from 33.3 million hectares in 2001; GM corn at 12.4 million hectares (21%), up from 9.8 million hectares in 2001; transgenic cotton at the same level of 6.8 million hectares (12%); and GM canola at 3.0 million hectares (5%), up from 2.7 million hectares in 2001, (James, 2002a). During the seven-year period 1996–2002, herbicide tolerance has consistently been the dominant trait with insect resistance being second. In 2002, herbicide tolerance, deployed in soybean, corn and cotton, occupied 75% or 44.2 million hectares of the global GM 58.7 million hectares, with 10.1 million hectares (17%) planted to Bt crops. Stacked genes for both herbicide tolerance and insect resistance deployed in both cotton and corn occupied 8% or 4.4 million hectares of the global transgenic area in 2002. The two dominant GM crop trait combinations in 2002 were: herbicide-tolerant soybean occupying 36.5 million hectares or 62% of the global total and grown in seven countries, and Bt maize, occupying 7.7 million hectares, equivalent to 13% of global transgenic area and also planted in seven countries. Notably, South Africa grew 58 000 hectares of Bt white maize for food, up 10-fold from 2001; herbicide-tolerant canola was planted in Canada and the United States occuping 3.0 million hectares equivalent to 5% of global transgenic area; the other five GM crops, herbicide-tolerant maize and cotton, Bt cotton and Bt/herbicide-tolerant cotton and maize, each occupied 4% of global transgenic crop area.
Another useful way to portray the adoption of GM crops is to express the global adoption rates for the four principal GM crops in 2001, soybean, cotton, canola and corn (James, 2002b). The data indicate that for the first time the GM soybean area exceeded 50% of the global hectarage of soybean. In 2002, 51% of the 72 million hectares of soybean planted globally were transgenic—up from 46% in 2001. Twenty per cent of the 34 million hectares of cotton were GM, the same as last year; decreases in total plantings of cotton in the United States (down by approximately 10%) and Australia (down by approximately. 50% due to a severe drought) were offset by a significant increase in GM cotton in China and the first planting of Bt cotton in India. The areas planted to transgenic canola and maize, both increased in 2002. Of the global 25 million hectares of canola, the percentage of GM increased from 11% in 2001 to 12% in 2002. Similarly, of the 140 million hectares of maize grown globally, 9% were GM in 2002—up significantly from 7% in 2001. If the global areas (conventional and transgenic) of these four principal GM crops are aggregated, the total area is 271 million hectares of which 21%, up from 19% in 2001, was transgenic in 2002. The biggest increase in 2002 is a 3.2 million hectares increase in GM soybean equivalent to a 10% year-on-year increase, followed by a 2.6 million hectares increase in GM maize equivalent to a significant 27% year-on-year growth.
The global population reached six billion on 12 October 1999, and is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, when approximately 90% of the world's population will live, or survive, in the three continents of the South: Asia, Africa and Latin America where today malnutrition results in 24 000 deaths per day. Thus, in the next 50 years, the population will increase by 50%, or three billion, and food production will need to be doubled on the same area of arable land (1.5 billion hectares), by 2050. The magnitude of the challenge of feeding tomorrow's world is difficult to conceive and the enormity of the task is probably best captured by the statement that: ‘In the next fifty years mankind will consume twice as much food as mankind has consumed since the beginning of agriculture, 10 000 years ago’ (James, 2002a, 2002b).
Crops are the major source of food globally. There is a widely held view in the international scientific and development community that conventional crop improvement alone will not allow us to meet the global food demands of 2050. What is being advocated is a global strategy that integrates both conventional crop improvement and biotechnology, including transgenic crops, which are often referred to as genetically modified (GM) crops; adoption of such a strategy would allow society to harness and optimise the contribution of biotechnology and GM crops to global food security. There is cautious optimism that such a strategy would contribute significantly to the alleviation of poverty and malnutrition which afflict 1.3 billion people and 815 million people, respectively, today, and that the global food demands of 2050 and beyond can be met.
China was the first country to commercialise transgenic crops in the early 1990s. The first approval for commercial sale of a genetically modified product for food use in an industrialised country was in the United States in 1994, but significant commercialisation did not actually begin until 1996. The unprecedented rapid adoption of transgenic crops during the initial seven-year period, 1996–2002 (Figure 63.1), when GM crops were first adopted, reflects the significant multiple benefits realised by large and small farmers in the industrial and developing countries that have grown transgenic crops commercially. Between 1996 and 2002, a total of 19 countries, 10 industrial and 9 developing, contributed to a more than 35-fold increase in the global area of transgenic crops from 1.7 million hectares in 1996 to 58.7 million hectares in 2002 (James, 2002a). The accumulated area of transgenic crops planted globally in the seven-year period, 1996–2002, totals more than 235 million hectares, equivalent to more than 575 million acres, an area equivalent to 25% of the land area of China or the United States, and 10 times greater than the land area of the UK.
In 2002, the global area of transgenic crops continued to grow for the sixth consecutive year at a sustained rate of growth of more than 10% between 2001 and 2002. The estimated global area of transgenic or GM crops for 2002 was 58.7 million hectares or 145 million acres, grown by approximately 6.0 million farmers in 16 countries, up from 13 countries in 2001. The increase in area between 2001 and 2002 was 12%, equivalent to 6.1 million hectares or 15 million acres, and 2002 was the first year when more developing countries (9) grew GM crops than industrial countries (7), Table 63.1. More than one quarter (27%) of the global transgenic crop area of 58.7 million hectares in 2002, equivalent to 16.0 million hectares, was grown in developing countries where growth continued to be strong. Whereas the absolute growth in GM crop area between 2001 and 2002 was higher in industrial countries (3.6 million hectares) compared with developing countries (2.5 million hectares), the percentage growth was more than twice as high in the developing countries of the south (19%) than in the industrial countries of the north (9%).
In 2002, four principal countries grew 99% of the global transgenic crop area (Table 63.1). The United States grew 39.0 million hectares (66% of the global total), followed by Argentina with 13.5 million hectares (23%), Canada 3.5 million hectares (6%) and China 2.1 million hectares (4%). Of the four leading GM crop countries, China had the highest year-on-year growth with a 40% increase in its Bt cotton area from 1.5 million hectares in 2001 to 2.1 million hectares in 2002, equivalent to 51% of the total cotton area of 4.1 million hectares; this is the first time for the Bt cotton area in China to exceed more than half of the national cotton area. Despite the economic crisis in Argentina, its GM crop area grew at 14% from 11.8 million hectares in 2001 to 13.5 million hectares in 2002. A growth rate of 9% was achieved in both the United States (equivalent to 3.3 million hectares) and Canada (0.3 million hectares). GM crop hectarage increased in South Africa by over 20% to 0.3 million hectares. Three developing countries, India, Colombia and Honduras grew transgenic crops for the first time in 2002. Notably, India, the largest cotton growing country in the world, with 8.7 million hectares equivalent to 25% of the world cotton hectarage, planted 45 000 hectares of commercial Bt cotton for the first time in 2002. Colombia also planted an introductory pre-commercial area of up to 2000 hectares of Bt cotton for the first time in 2002. Honduras became the first country in Central America to grow an introductory pre-commercial area of approximately 350 hectares of Bt corn in 2002. Thus, the number of countries that grew GM crops increased from 13 in 2001 to 16 in 2002—these include nine developing countries, five industrial countries and two Eastern European countries.
Globally, in 2002, the principal GM crops were: GM soybean occupying 36.5 million hectares (62% of global area), up from 33.3 million hectares in 2001; GM corn at 12.4 million hectares (21%), up from 9.8 million hectares in 2001; transgenic cotton at the same level of 6.8 million hectares (12%); and GM canola at 3.0 million hectares (5%), up from 2.7 million hectares in 2001, (James, 2002a). During the seven-year period 1996–2002, herbicide tolerance has consistently been the dominant trait with insect resistance being second. In 2002, herbicide tolerance, deployed in soybean, corn and cotton, occupied 75% or 44.2 million hectares of the global GM 58.7 million hectares, with 10.1 million hectares (17%) planted to Bt crops. Stacked genes for both herbicide tolerance and insect resistance deployed in both cotton and corn occupied 8% or 4.4 million hectares of the global transgenic area in 2002. The two dominant GM crop trait combinations in 2002 were: herbicide-tolerant soybean occupying 36.5 million hectares or 62% of the global total and grown in seven countries, and Bt maize, occupying 7.7 million hectares, equivalent to 13% of global transgenic area and also planted in seven countries. Notably, South Africa grew 58 000 hectares of Bt white maize for food, up 10-fold from 2001; herbicide-tolerant canola was planted in Canada and the United States occuping 3.0 million hectares equivalent to 5% of global transgenic area; the other five GM crops, herbicide-tolerant maize and cotton, Bt cotton and Bt/herbicide-tolerant cotton and maize, each occupied 4% of global transgenic crop area.
Another useful way to portray the adoption of GM crops is to express the global adoption rates for the four principal GM crops in 2001, soybean, cotton, canola and corn (James, 2002b). The data indicate that for the first time the GM soybean area exceeded 50% of the global hectarage of soybean. In 2002, 51% of the 72 million hectares of soybean planted globally were transgenic—up from 46% in 2001. Twenty per cent of the 34 million hectares of cotton were GM, the same as last year; decreases in total plantings of cotton in the United States (down by approximately 10%) and Australia (down by approximately. 50% due to a severe drought) were offset by a significant increase in GM cotton in China and the first planting of Bt cotton in India. The areas planted to transgenic canola and maize, both increased in 2002. Of the global 25 million hectares of canola, the percentage of GM increased from 11% in 2001 to 12% in 2002. Similarly, of the 140 million hectares of maize grown globally, 9% were GM in 2002—up significantly from 7% in 2001. If the global areas (conventional and transgenic) of these four principal GM crops are aggregated, the total area is 271 million hectares of which 21%, up from 19% in 2001, was transgenic in 2002. The biggest increase in 2002 is a 3.2 million hectares increase in GM soybean equivalent to a 10% year-on-year increase, followed by a 2.6 million hectares increase in GM maize equivalent to a significant 27% year-on-year growth.
It appears very likely that DNA marker-assisted breeding for a range of traits—particularly to control diseases and pests, and overcome abiotic stresses—is the second most important application of agrobiotechnology in the mid-term in Africa. Once biosafety laws and appropriate regulatory frameworks and systems are enacted in order to ensure food safety and minimise human health risks and environmental hazards, transgenic crops can be added to the tool-kit of plant breeders working in that region.
To help address the devastating impacts of vitamin A deficiency, particularly on the poor in Asia, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and its national and international partners are now developing Golden Rice – a new type of rice that contains a source of vitamin A.
The experience of the past is often the best guide for the future. The experience of the first seven years, 1996–2002, during which a cumulative total of over 235 million hectares (over 580 million acres) of transgenic crops were planted globally in 19 countries, has confirmed that the early promise of biotechnology has been fulfilled. GM crops can deliver substantial agronomic, environmental, economic and social benefits to farmers and, increasingly, to society at large. GM crops have met the expectations of large and small farmers planting transgenic crops in both industrial and developing countries.
